polyrot

btc-updown-5m-17848482003:31

reconnectinglive

$148.88

paper

$250.00

BTC live

$65,153.64

-22.37

vs open

Window open

$65,176.01

strike

Fair P(Up)

18.4%

model

Market P(Up)

49.5%

49.0% bid · 50.0% ask

Best edge

30.6¢

entry at ≥ 10¢

Session

0/0 won

0 open · net +0.00

Model vs market — P(Up)

When the amber model pulls ≥10¢ away from the blue ask, the engine takes a paper position.

BTC vs window open

Dashed line is the strike this window settles against.

Session PnL

+$0.00

Bars are settled bets net of fees; the dimmed amber bar is the open position, live. Line is cumulative.

No settled bets yet — the chart grows as windows resolve.

Trades

5-share tickets at ≥10¢ edge, fees per official schedule. LIVE rows are real Polymarket orders; unmarked rows are simulation.

entered	market	side	entry	fair	edge	mode	status	pnl
23:10:53	…1784848200	DOWN	0.37	0.50	+13¢	sim	void	+0.00
23:05:49	…1784847900	UP	0.66	0.77	+11¢	sim	void	+0.00
23:00:35	…1784847600	DOWN	0.40	0.47	+13¢	sim	void	+0.00
22:55:05	…1784847300	UP	0.57	0.69	+12¢	sim	void	+0.00
22:51:14	…1784847000	DOWN	0.58	0.31	+11¢	sim	void	+0.00
22:47:15	…1784846700	DOWN	0.65	0.25	+10¢	sim	void	+0.00

backtested edge (30 days, 8,638 markets): 60.4% win, t=9.0 at ≥10¢ threshold · LIVE rows place real Polymarket orders when the wallet is armed